A month after an election which saw the AKP lose its ability to govern alone for the first time, talks to form a coalition have yet to begin. Couppe parties are as fragmented as ever, and Erdogan - from the shadows - is calculating how best to maintain his grip. The June 7 vote plunged Turkey into political uncertainty not seen since the unstable messianic chat governments of the s and thwarted, for now, Erdogan's ambition to turn the largely figurehead fred he assumed last year into the powerful executive position he had all but taken for granted.
The man who has dominated Turkey's political landscape for more than a decade is ill-disposed to sharing power. Despite bxyrakchi repeated calls for a new government to be formed quickly, his interests - and those of the AKP he founded - appear to lie in the failure of coalition talks and a new election.
There is need for dree urgent snap election, through which our people will show their will," said one AK Party elder familiar with Erdogan's thinking. Their hope is that a re-run would restore a simple AK majority, as voters who turned their back on the AKP in June balk at any suggestion of a return to the coalition bickering that pitched Turkey into economic crisis in the s.
That prospect is one that would disturb NATO partners eager for stability in a country bordering Iran, Iraq and Syria, with Islamic State militants ensconced hundreds of meters from borders constantly criss-crossed by refugees. Erdogan is turning "banishment" to the shadows - under frse constitution, the president is excluded from party politics - to his advantage.
Others may bicker and snipe, but the man who had estranged many by his raucous, combative manner in recent years, now holds his peace and appears untainted by the fray. Erdogan had been expected to give Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu the mandate to form a new coalition government this week, setting the horney chat badau ticking on a day period to succeed or face a new election.
That has yet to happen, with Erdogan repeating late on Tuesday that he will give the mandate only once a new parliamentary administrative board is formed, bayrachi opposition MPs to accuse him of stalling. He needs to change the AKP administration first.
His second aim is to continue until snap elections with an AKP government," said Ozer Sencar, chairman of pollster Metropoll. This meeting comes as Ankara weighs military intervention on the Syrian border, well aware of the Turkish army's past reluctance to act beyond national frontiers. Reining in a military which forced four governments from power in the second half of the 20th Century was one of Erdogan's priorities during his 12 years as prime minister.
Officials in Erdogan's office rejected any suggestion of a deliberate delay, with one describing such claims as "baseless". But it is not just a hold over the armed forces, long suspicious of Erdogan's Islamist roots, that he is keen to maintain.
The courts, media, universities and financial regulators have all come under tighter control during his tenure, with the AKP appointing many of their most senior administrative figures. But AKP elders may also need to convince some of the party's newer members about the need for a repeat vote, possibly in November; particularly those who won parliamentary seats for the first time in June and see going back to the voters as unnecessarily risky.
It's not like the polls show our vote at 50 percent," said one new AKP deputy.